We test the discovered preference hypothesis against the theory of coherent arbitrariness in a split-sample stated choice experiment on flood risk exposure in the Netherlands. A semiparametric local multinomial logit model is proposed as an alternative method to the Swait and Louviere (1993) test procedure to control for preference dynamics in stated choice experiments. We find evidence of a declining impact over the choice sequence of an induced starting point bias in the first choice task. The results provide indicative support for convergence in preferences between both samples, which is in line with the discovered preference hypothesis.
Dekker, T., Koster, P. & Brouwer, R. (2014), Changing with the tide: semi-parametric estimation of preference dynamics. Land Economics, 90 (4), pp 717-745.